Following the global recall of Airbus A320 aircraft triggered by last month’s JetBlue incident, experts at the University of Surrey’s Space Centre have examined how solar radiation can compromise aircraft electronics. The findings clarify why airlines, regulators and maintenance teams are intensifying focus on space‑weather effects in aviation safety planning.
Solar Radiation and Aircraft Avionics: A Growing Concern
Solar events such as solar flares, coronal mass ejections and geomagnetic storms can inject high‑energy particles into the upper atmosphere. When an aircraft flies at cruising altitudes (30–40 kilo‑metres), these particles interact with the aircraft’s circuitry, potentially inducing voltage spikes or bit‑flips in flight‑control computers. In October 2025, the JetBlue flight that diverted from Cancun to New Jersey experienced a sudden loss of altitude—an event later linked to a computer malfunction suspected to be exacerbated by solar radiation.
Historical Precedents Illustrate the Risk
- 2008 Qantas QF72 incident – A loss of altitude over Western Australia was eventually traced to avionics faults that, in hindsight, could have been accelerated by solar activity.
- 1956 Solar Storm – Reported to generate the strongest recorded increase in trapped radiation; modern models estimate it could have caused widespread avionics errors today.
Surrey Space Centre’s MAIRE Model: Quantifying the Effect
Professor Keith Ryden and colleagues have released the MAIRE (MAince In-flight Radiation Effects) model. MAIRE calculates dose‑response curves for flight‑control computers based on real‑time solar data. The model is already in trial with the UK Met Office and supplies aviation stakeholders with predictive metrics for scheduled operations.
Key Features of MAIRE
- Real‑time integration – Pulls data from GOES satellites and ground‑based observatories.
- Threshold alerts – Flags conditions where ionising radiation exceeds safe limits for specific avionics components.
- Scenario simulation – Allows airlines to model a route’s exposure to a forecasted solar event.
During the 11 November 2025 GLE (Ground Level Enhancement), MAIRE demonstrated that radiation levels could spike up to ten times the baseline for brief periods. Rapid‑response balloon flights deployed by the Met Office captured this spike, providing the empirical data necessary to refine the model further.
Implications for Airline Operations and Regulatory Oversight
Because the aviation industry must comply with the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) Annex 13 and various national safety guidelines, the evidence surrounding solar‑induced malfunctions necessitates adjustments to risk assessment protocols.
- Airlines may choose to adjust flight paths during predicted solar storms to minimise exposure to the most intense auroral sub‑storms.
- Regulators might amend maintenance checklists to include routine diagnostics for electronics that are particularly sensitive to single‑event upsets.
- Flight‑crew training programs can incorporate briefings on “space‑weather alerts,” ensuring pilots are prepared to recognize and react to anomalous system behaviour.
Business Case for Proactive Measures
Every incident that interrupts service carries cost: grounded aircraft, passenger compensation, and reputational impact. By leveraging models such as MAIRE and integrating solar‑radiation monitoring into flight‑management systems, operators can reduce unscheduled diversions and optimise maintenance planning, ultimately translating into safer operations and cost savings.
What Airlines and Manufacturers Are Doing Now
Airbus and Boeing have both pledged to update their avionics firmware with improved shielding and error‑correction algorithms. Fuel‑economy‑focused airlines are exploring hybrid‑shuttle‑scheduling strategies that favour lower altitudes during peak radiation periods. Some carriers have invested in subscription services that feed real‑time solar‑weather data directly to their flight‑planning software.
The Role of Collaborative Research
The Surrey Space Centre’s contributions to the industry extend beyond MAIRE. For over twenty years the centre has worked on “radiation hardening” standards that are now influencing the design criteria for next‑generation avionics. 2026 pilot‑training modules are planned to include simulated solar‑storm scenarios, ensuring aircrew are ready for unexpected computer anomalies.
Looking Ahead: Solar‑Safe Aviations of the Future
With space‑weather prediction becoming more accurate, future flight‑operations systems will likely incorporate automatic avoidance protocols. Companies such as University of Surrey Aviation Safety Centre are developing adaptive routing algorithms that can re‑route aircraft in-flight if ionising radiation exceeds pre‑set thresholds.
Governments are also expected to publish updated guidance on “space‑weather resilience” for aviation in the next ICAO white papers. For airlines, the key takeaway is clear: prepare for the Sun’s impact as diligently as you schedule for turbulence or weather fronts.
Next Steps for Aviation Professionals
Stakeholders who want to stay ahead of solar‑related risks should:
- Subscribe to real‑time solar‑weather feeds from the UK Met Office or NOAA.
- Review MAIRE outputs for upcoming flight calendars.
- Plan maintenance checks around peak solar‑activity windows.
- Incorporate solar‑setting guidelines into crew briefing documents.
- Participate in cross‑industry workshops organised by the Surrey Space Centre.
By embedding these practices into daily operations, the aviation community can mitigate the impact of solar radiation and maintain high safety standards.
Get Involved With the Surrey Space Centre’s Research
Those interested in the technical side of space‑weather research can explore our research programmes or reach out to Professor Keith Ryden for collaboration opportunities.
Share Your Insights
How has solar radiation affected your organization’s operations or maintenance schedules? Contact us or leave a comment below to start a conversation.
Learn More About Aviation Safety Opportunities
We invite aviation professionals to visit our University of Surrey Aviation Page to discover courses and postgraduate research options designed to prepare you for the evolving challenges of modern flight operations.
Have Questions About Solving Solar‑Radiation Challenges?
Schedule a free consultation with our team of experts and explore how tailored solutions can be integrated into your existing safety framework.
By staying informed and proactive, aviation professionals can turn the Sun from a threat into a managed risk, ensuring that the skies remain safe for all.
